Upstart broker Robinhood is jumping into the prediction betting game, announcing on Monday that users can begin trading the 2024 presidential election that is eight days away.
Users can trade a Kamala Harris or Donald Trump contract starting Monday, said the company, as long as they meet certain criteria that include being a U.S. citizen. The trading is being offered through its Robinhood Derivatives unit and ForecastEx, which is operated by Interactive Brokers.
Robinhood jumps into a suddenly crowded politics prediction markets field that grew this month after platform Kalshi won a key ruling against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which was seeking to stop the election outcome trading. The CFTC is appealing the ruling. Shortly after, Interactive Brokers launched various political contracts, including on the election.
The election markets have generated some controversary this year with some concerned about light volume allowing the markets to be skewed. International platform Polymarket said last week that a single French user was responsible for four accounts spending millions to buy the Trump contract. But Polymarket said an investigation found the trading was not manipulating the market.
“We believe event contracts give people a tool to engage in real-time decision-making, unlocking a new asset class that democratizes access to events as they unfold,” said Robinhood in a statement. For now, only the presidential election contracts will be available to trade on the system.
Odds and gambling platforms do not use methodologies used by traditional political polling, and therefore are not substitutes for political polls.
